Thermal adaptation and plasticity in western Alaskan sockeye salmon
An important unresolved question is how populations of coldwater‐dependent fishes will respond to rapidly warming water temperatures. For example, the culturally and economically important group, Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), experience site‐specific thermal regimes during early development that could be disrupted by warming. To test for thermal local adaptation and heritable phenotypic plasticity in Pacific salmon embryos, we measured the developmental rate, survival, and body size at hatching in two populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) that overlap in timing of spawning but incubate in contrasting natural thermal regimes. Using a split half‐sibling design, we exposed embryos of 10 families from each of two populations to variable and constant thermal regimes. These represented both experienced temperatures by each population, and predicted temperatures under plausible future conditions based on a warming scenario from the downscaled global climate model (MIROC A1B scenario). We did not find evidence of thermal local adaptation during the embryonic stage for developmental rate or survival. Within treatments, populations hatched within 1 day of each other, on average, and among treatments, did not differ in survival in response to temperature. We did detect plasticity to temperature; embryos developed 2.5 times longer (189 days) in the coolest regime compared to the warmest regime (74 days). We also detected variation in developmental rates among families within and among temperature regimes, indicating heritable plasticity. Families exhibited a strong positive relationship between thermal variability and phenotypic variability in developmental rate but body length and mass at hatching were largely insensitive to temperature. Overall, our results indicated a lack of thermal local adaptation, but a presence of plasticity in populations experiencing contrasting conditions, as well as family‐specific heritable plasticity that could facilitate adaptive change.
Citation: Sparks, M. M., Westley, P. A., Falke, J. A., & Quinn, T. P. (2017). Thermal adaptation and phenotypic plasticity in a warming world: Insights from common garden experiments on Alaskan sockeye salmon. Global change biology, 23(12), 5203-5217.
Landscape and temporal patterns in Bristol Bay sockeye salmon phenology
We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given the temperature regimes sockeye salmon experienced during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 days to as many as 260 days depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate–lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a hatching timing that was 16 to 30 days earlier. The most extreme warming scenarios shifted development to approximately 1 week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.
Citation: Sparks, M. M., Falke, J. A., Quinn, T. P., Adkison, M. D., Schindler, D. E., Bartz, K., Young, D., & Westley, P. A. (2019). Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 76(1), 123-135.
